Week of December 8–14, 2024

President-elect Trump has promised mass deportations, but Marco Tabellini says that stringent anti-immigration policies can thwart economic growth.

President-elect Donald Trump has promised to implement the largest domestic deportation operation in U.S. history, targeting both documented and undocumented immigrants. The U.S. is currently facing a significant increase in asylum applications, and many communities are struggling to support the surge of migrants. However, history suggests that stringent immigration policies have failed to bring the intended economic benefits and have instead harmed the overall economy.

The U.S. has previously tried strict immigration measures, such as the Chinese Exclusion Act and country-specific quotas, both of which slowed economic growth and reduced the labor supply. In contrast, immigration has been key to sustaining the U.S. economy, particularly in filling labor gaps and controlling inflation. Immigrants are unlikely to displace U.S.-born workers and contribute significantly to economic growth.

Trump's proposed policies may lead to higher costs, job losses, and inflation, particularly in sectors reliant on immigrant labor. While U.S.-born workers might see wage increases, the rising costs of goods and services could harm the economy. In the long term, these policies could lead to slower growth, with the U.S. losing out on the contributions of younger immigrants, who are crucial for supporting an aging population.

A crackdown on immigration may also deter highly skilled workers, which could have negative consequences for innovation and competitiveness. Rather than punitive measures, the U.S. needs a more balanced immigration approach to ensure economic stability and growth.

Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, Senior Fellow, testified before the U.S. Senate about the severe economic and humanitarian consequences of mass deportations. He highlighted that deportations would result in the loss of millions of dollars in tax contributions from undocumented individuals. Key industries would be devastated by workforce shortages, particularly in sectors reliant on immigrant labor. Reichlin-Melnick emphasized the need for Congress to establish a pathway to permanent legal status for undocumented people currently residing in the U.S., providing a "line" for them to stand in.

The testimony concluded that mass deportations would harm economic growth, lead to higher costs of goods, and cripple multiple industries. The recommended solution was for Congress to implement a system that allows undocumented individuals to gain legal status, ensuring a more stable workforce and avoiding the detrimental effects of widespread deportations.

On December 13, the Biden administration issued a permanent rule extending the validity of certain work permits by up to 540 days if they are timely renewed. This rule, effective January 13, 2025, addresses significant USCIS processing backlogs, which have grown in recent years due to operational challenges, including a hiring freeze and increased work permit requests under the Biden administration.

Previously, USCIS allowed a 180-day extension, but temporary measures increased it to 540 days to prevent widespread employment gaps. The new permanent rule ensures that workers and employers avoid disruptions caused by delays in permit renewals, saving billions of dollars in lost income and revenue. USCIS also clarified the rule applies to permits with expired and soon-to-expire validity, though it doesn't extend to DACA recipients or untimely renewal requests.

This rule benefits employers and workers, saving $10 billion in lost income, generating $1.1 billion in taxes, and preventing losses for 39,000 employers. The change comes as the U.S. faces labor shortages and underscores the importance of immigrant workers to the economy. Over the past four years, USCIS has implemented other changes to streamline work permit processes, reduce backlogs, and strengthen the economy through immigrant contributions.

The permanent extension reflects the administration's commitment to supporting workers and recognizing the value of immigrants in the workforce.

Ahead of his budget presentation, Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin proposed a plan to withhold state funding from localities that implement “sanctuary city” policies and refuse to comply with federal immigration laws regarding the deportation of undocumented immigrants who have committed crimes. Sanctuary cities limit or refuse cooperation with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

The proposal would cut state funding typically designated for local police departments and jail operations in sanctuary cities. It would also mandate that local law enforcement notify ICE 48 hours before releasing immigrants without legal status who have committed crimes.

Youngkin’s administration cited incidents, such as the alleged rape by an undocumented immigrant with a criminal history in Herndon and a case in Fairfax County where an immigrant suspected of sex crimes was not detained, to support the need for the proposal. Several cities, including Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax County, and Richmond, have adopted policies limiting cooperation with ICE, focusing on ensuring compliance with federal laws but restricting the identification of potentially undocumented individuals.

To become law, Youngkin’s proposal must be approved during the 2025 state budget negotiations.

In the summer of 2022, Estefani Munive began her legal internship at the Immigration Center for Women and Children in San Francisco, where she worked with pro se asylum seekers. She learned that unlike criminal cases, the government does not provide attorneys for undocumented individuals seeking asylum, who must either afford one or find nonprofit support. Munive observed a rise in asylum seekers, especially Latin American men fleeing persecution due to their sexual orientation or identity.

To seek asylum in the U.S., individuals must prove a well-founded fear of persecution. Asylum seekers face significant dangers, including rape, kidnapping, and death, even before arriving. Upon entry, they struggle with delays in work authorization and housing challenges. Munive witnessed firsthand the emotional and psychological toll this process takes, especially on LGBT men. Many men find it difficult to share their traumatic experiences due to cultural norms of masculinity in their home countries, which often discourage expressing vulnerability.

Munive recounts several personal stories, such as one man who continues to fear for his safety despite being in the U.S., and another who avoided legal assistance due to shame. She emphasizes that asylum seekers need more than legal aid—they also require medical, social, and psychological support to heal from past trauma. Munive urges advocates to take a holistic approach to meet these needs and assist asylum seekers in rebuilding their lives in the U.S.

In response to the threat of mass deportations following the election results, UnidosUS and its network of affiliates have mobilized to support immigrant communities. They provide essential legal services, including "Know Your Rights" workshops to help immigrants navigate the complexities of immigration law and policy shifts. UnidosUS affiliates like The Resurrection Project, CASA, Make the Road NY, and others are crucial in offering accurate information and protecting vulnerable individuals from fraudulent actors.

These affiliates also assist with immigration relief applications, educate communities on their rights during enforcement actions, and mobilize to safeguard individuals in worst-case scenarios. The high demand for these services underscores their importance in uncertain times.

UnidosUS offers resources to help individuals understand their rights, find trusted legal help, and prepare for potential raids or detentions. These resources include the "Know Your Rights" Guide, Red Cards, and additional materials in multiple languages. They also provide directories to connect individuals with qualified legal professionals, such as ImmigrationLawHelp and the AILA Directory.

For those facing immigration raids, UnidosUS provides toolkits like the Rapid Response Toolkit and resources on responding to mass worksite raids. They also caution against fraud, warning individuals to seek legal assistance only from licensed attorneys or accredited representatives. With these tools, UnidosUS aims to empower immigrant communities and ensure they have the support they need during challenging times.

This document reviews the incoming Trump administration's policy priorities and their likely impact on immigration issues in U.S. higher education. It examines the potential effects on DACA recipients, undocumented students and graduates, international students and scholars, and displaced or refugee students within higher education institutions.

The analysis draws from Trump’s statements, his first administration’s policy record, and his 2024 campaign, where immigration was a central issue. Trump’s campaign promised to reduce legal immigration, dismantle humanitarian protections, and pursue mass deportations. If these proposals are enacted, they could significantly harm immigrant communities’ well-being, negatively affect the U.S. economy, strain foreign relations, and weaken the workforce.

While this document touches on Project 2025, it provides a broader perspective on potential immigration actions beyond that scope. For more details on Project 2025’s impact, the Niskanen Center offers further analysis. The document also highlights the actions of the first Trump administration that affected higher education and the responses from the Presidents’ Alliance.

These policy proposals could disrupt U.S. higher education by limiting opportunities for immigrant students, scholars, and faculty, and weaken the U.S. role as a global leader in education and research.

Nevada Governor Joe Lombardo, initially hesitant about using the state's National Guard for mass deportations, reversed course within 48 hours, signing onto a letter with 25 other Republican governors. The letter expresses full support for President Trump's immigration policies, including mass deportations. Lombardo had previously stated at the Western Governors' Association that it was "too soon to opine" on the idea, citing concerns about the specifics of such a mission. However, the joint statement indicated that he, along with other governors, was prepared to utilize state resources, including law enforcement and the National Guard, to assist in deportations.

The letter emphasizes the need to address illegal immigration and deport individuals deemed threats to national security. Lombardo's sudden shift raised questions about what new details had influenced his stance. The American Immigration Council warns that mass deportations in Nevada could remove 136,000 undocumented workers, impacting industries such as construction, hospitality, and landscaping, and potentially costing the state and nation billions. Deportation operations would cost an estimated $315 billion, with detaining immigrants adding another $167.8 billion.

Despite the massive costs, Trump has stated that there is "no price tag" for deportations, emphasizing the need to carry out these policies regardless of the financial burden. Lombardo's decision to support this approach aligns with the broader Republican commitment to enforcing stricter immigration controls.

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has permanently extended the automatic renewal period for Employment Authorization Documents (EADs) to 540 days, addressing concerns raised by Maine’s officials, including Governor Janet Mills, U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree, and U.S. Sen. Angus King. This change ensures that immigrants and asylum seekers can maintain employment without disruptions due to backlogged application processing, which has previously caused job losses and worker shortages in Maine.

This permanent rule follows two temporary extensions of the renewal period, which had been increased from 180 to 540 days in response to delays in work permit processing. The rule will apply to applicants with renewal applications pending or filed after May 4, 2022, and will take effect on January 13, 2025.

Pingree, King, and Mills expressed their support for the rule, noting its importance in addressing labor shortages and providing stability for businesses in Maine. They also reiterated their commitment to comprehensive immigration reform and improving work authorization processes. Pingree has introduced legislation to reduce the waiting period for asylum seekers to obtain work permits from 180 days to 30 days and eliminate the two-year renewal requirement, which many immigrant rights groups support.

While this rule addresses immediate concerns, Maine officials continue to push for broader reforms to streamline immigration processes and alleviate the burdens faced by immigrants and their employers.

With President Trump’s second term set to begin in January 2025, employers must prepare for significant changes in immigration policy. Drawing from the first Trump administration, key areas of focus include travel bans, policy shifts, and worksite enforcement.

Travel bans are expected to be reinstated on Day 1, with possible restrictions on nationals from specific countries, such as China, and certain visa holders, including F-1 students and H/L visa travelers. These changes may take effect within 72 hours, requiring employees outside the U.S. to return quickly.

Employers should also anticipate stricter business policies, such as increased Requests for Evidence (RFEs), higher denial rates, and delays in processing. The potential return of pre-Biden policies, like reviewing every renewal application as a new one, will slow the application process. Companies must prepare for a more cumbersome system, especially regarding H-1B visas and renewals.

Worksite enforcement will intensify, with possible increases in USCIS site visits and ICE audits. Employers should review petitions for foreign national employees, particularly those on H and L visas, and establish rapid response teams for audits or raids.

To prepare, employers should:

• Coordinate internally on immigration priorities and ensure travel policies are updated.
• Develop plans for rapid communication with employees.
• Create strategies for handling worksite visits.
• Regularly review and adjust talent strategies based on evolving policies.

By proactively adjusting to these anticipated changes, employers can better navigate the shifting immigration landscape.

The United States has experienced its largest immigration surge in history under the Biden administration, surpassing the Ellis Island-era boom, according to a new analysis. Between 2021 and 2024, an average of 2.4 million immigrants entered the US annually, with approximately 60% crossing illegally, reports the Congressional Budget Office and Goldman Sachs.

Net migration during this period is projected to exceed 8 million, outpacing the influx of the 1850s when the foreign-born population skyrocketed. Critics point to President Biden’s messaging and policies, such as catch-and-release at the border and lenient immigration courts, as key drivers of the surge.

“He definitely opened the borders,” said Lora Ries of The Heritage Foundation. “He sent the signal loud and clear, and the world responded.” Ira Mehlman of FAIR noted that public dissatisfaction with these policies likely influenced recent elections.

The migration surge increased the US population by 0.6% annually, a rate comparable to the Ellis Island era. America’s foreign-born population now accounts for a record 15.2% of residents, surpassing the previous peak of 14.8% in 1890, shortly before Ellis Island opened to manage immigration.

Critics argue that the administration’s policies created chaos and failed to address concerns, leaving many Americans frustrated.