Week of December 1–7, 2024

In response to the Trump administration's threats of mass deportations, California Attorney General Rob Bonta issued updated guidelines to help public institutions comply with state laws limiting participation in immigration enforcement. Originally issued in 2018, the guidance aims to protect immigrant rights by minimizing support for immigration enforcement at institutions such as courthouses, healthcare facilities, schools, and libraries. The guidance encourages institutions to adopt policies that ensure immigrants can safely access public services without fear of deportation.

Bonta emphasized that California will continue to uphold its values regardless of federal actions, highlighting the state's immigrant population as integral to its economy, culture, and history. The updated policies are designed to help institutions, especially courthouses, healthcare facilities, and schools, comply with the California Values Act (SB 54), which restricts local and state law enforcement from assisting with immigration enforcement. These policies outline procedures such as protecting personal information, notifying individuals of their privacy rights, and ensuring that immigration enforcement requests are handled by designated staff.

The guidance aims to prevent disruptions from immigration enforcement and ensure that public services remain accessible to all residents, regardless of immigration status. Institutions that are not required to adopt these policies are still encouraged to do so. Bonta’s office will continue to monitor and take action against any unlawful assistance with immigration enforcement.

The Inland Immigrant and Refugee Welcome Center opened in Escondido, marking the second location in the San Diego region offering support to immigrants, regardless of their immigration status. The center is part of a broader effort to assist the county's significant immigrant and refugee population, which constitutes over 20% of the area's residents. Located within the North Inland Live Well Center, it provides a safe, culturally responsive environment for accessing essential services.

The Welcome Center offers a range of resources, including resettlement assistance, legal aid, employment support, health and wellness programs, and access to public services like CalWORKS, Medi-Cal, and CalFresh. It is strategically positioned near key County departments such as Aging and Independence Services, Public Health, and the Military and Veterans Resource Center.

Additionally, the center collaborates with community organizations to provide workshops and services on-site. The county’s first Welcome Center opened in National City in March 2023, and these centers were created following community feedback to address gaps in services for immigrant and refugee families. The Escondido location is open weekdays from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m., continuing the effort to bridge the gap between eligible services and the community's needs.

Immigration is a central issue in the 2024 presidential race, and its impact on the U.S. economy under President-elect Trump's second term could vary widely. This analysis presents two potential scenarios: "high immigration" and "low immigration," based on expected policy shifts.

In the "low" scenario, with stricter policies and aggressive deportations, the U.S. could experience net outmigration in 2025, with 650,000 more people leaving than entering. In contrast, the "high" scenario assumes only modestly stricter policies, leading to 1.3 million people entering the country in 2025.

These scenarios have significant economic implications. Immigration affects population growth, labor force participation, and overall economic output. Under the "low" scenario, a reduction in immigration leads to slower labor force growth, lower earnings, and decreased economic activity. The "high" scenario, with greater immigration, would boost labor force growth and economic expansion.

By 2025, GDP growth could be reduced by between 0.1% and 0.4%, or $30-$110 billion, depending on the scenario. Over time, the "low" immigration path would result in a smaller economy compared to higher immigration levels. Extreme deportation measures, advocated by Trump, could lead to unpredictable disruptions, which are not modeled in this analysis. Overall, immigration policy under Trump’s second term could have lasting and profound economic effects.

President-elect Donald Trump plans to initiate mass deportations, prompting U.S. employers—especially in industries like manufacturing, food processing, agriculture, and construction—to prepare for increased immigration enforcement. Many employers may unknowingly employ unauthorized workers, despite verifying documents through Form I-9, as fake documents and identity theft are common. The E-Verify system is more reliable but still vulnerable to counterfeit documents using stolen identities.

Employers may face audits or "silent raids" by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), where they are required to produce documents such as payroll records, I-9 forms, and identity verification. Employers can be fined from $300 to $30,000 per worker for violations, including incorrect forms or knowingly hiring unauthorized workers. In some cases, ICE issues “Notices of Suspect Documents,” requiring the employer to either contest or terminate workers, often leading to worker absences.

In more severe cases, ICE conducts "raids with force," arriving unannounced with armed agents, arresting unauthorized workers, and seizing documents and technology. Employers may also face criminal charges, such as harboring unauthorized workers, which can result in substantial fines or imprisonment.

To prepare, employers should ensure meticulous handling of I-9 verification, audit for errors, enroll in E-Verify, pay workers correctly, assess recruitment patterns, and establish a clear legal compliance policy. Having a coordinated response plan, including consultation with experienced legal counsel, is essential to mitigate the impacts of raids.

The American Immigration Council highlights the importance of state and local governments in protecting immigrants, especially in light of uncertain federal immigration policies post-2024. While some states have enacted harmful policies, many have championed efforts to protect immigrant rights and ensure their participation in local communities. Key policy areas for safeguarding immigrant populations include:

• Data Privacy: Limiting information sharing with federal authorities helps protect immigrants from discrimination and deportation risks. States like Washington and Colorado have passed legislation to restrict data collection, especially regarding immigration status.
• Funding Immigration Legal Services: As immigrants often lack government-funded attorneys, states and localities can fund legal services to improve outcomes in deportation proceedings. Programs like Washington's SB-5950 and Denver's Immigrant Legal Services Fund help provide necessary legal aid.
• Limiting Cooperation with Federal Immigration Authorities: Restricting cooperation with ICE fosters trust between immigrant communities and local law enforcement, enhancing public safety. Examples include Colorado's HB19-1124 and Illinois's SB-0667.
• Protecting Refugee Resettlement Services: State and local funding can help offset potential cuts to federal refugee programs, ensuring continued support for resettling refugees. Washington, Oregon, and New York have provided such funding.
• Creating Offices of New Americans: These offices support immigrant integration and inclusivity, with more than 40 local offices across the U.S.

By adopting policies that support immigrant workers, provide legal services, and protect refugees, states and localities can ensure the safety and well-being of immigrant communities.

Republican lawmakers are planning significant immigration reforms in line with President-elect Trump’s promises but face major political hurdles. Despite holding majorities in the House and Senate, GOP leaders are divided on the extent of immigration crackdowns, such as limiting asylum and increasing deportations. The party's slim majority in the House and potential filibusters from Senate Democrats complicate efforts to pass comprehensive immigration reform.

To bypass the Senate filibuster, Republicans may use budget reconciliation, a procedure that allows passing certain measures with a simple majority. This could fund the border wall, increase border security personnel, and enhance border technology. However, more extensive immigration reforms, like mass deportation plans, may not fit within this process due to budgetary rules.

Internal GOP divisions further complicate the process. Hardliners favor aggressive deportations and asylum restrictions, while moderates from swing districts prefer a more cautious approach. The House is expected to pass H.R. 2, a messaging bill that includes border wall funding and asylum restrictions, but it will likely be blocked in the Senate.

Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan hopes to include policies like Trump’s "Remain in Mexico" policy and tighter asylum rules in the reconciliation package, but the complexity of such measures may violate budgetary restrictions. In the absence of congressional action, Trump could enact some policies through executive orders, though these could be reversed by future administrations.

President-elect Donald Trump’s promise to initiate mass deportations is a central focus of his immigration policy, with plans to begin by targeting criminals and repealing Temporary Protected Status. Trump's appointment of Thomas Homan as “border czar” and Stephen Miller as deputy chief of staff signals an aggressive approach. While logistically challenging, advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) may aid in fulfilling these goals.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has already started integrating AI, such as AI-powered drones and surveillance towers, to monitor borders and detect illegal activity. In 2025, DHS plans to expand AI use through a dedicated office to establish standards for its deployment. However, concerns are rising over the potential for AI to be weaponized for mass deportation and surveillance, potentially infringing on privacy and due process.

AI could automate decision-making processes related to immigration, potentially leading to systemic bias and errors. Experts worry that AI’s use could fast-track deportations, disproportionately affecting communities of color and U.S. citizens, due to the technology’s inaccuracy. These concerns are particularly alarming as AI tools such as facial recognition and behavior analysis could be used to identify individuals for deportation, leading to wrongful flags and consequences for legal residents.

Some advocates, like Laura MacCleery from Unidos U.S., warn that these technologies may disproportionately impact marginalized communities. However, others, like Marina Shepelsky, see potential benefits in AI’s growth under Trump’s administration, especially if regulations are relaxed to encourage innovation.

Illegal immigrants get nearly $9,000 a year each in subsidies from US taxpayers but Trump can change that

Senator John Thune, the incoming Senate majority leader, plans to prioritize defense and border security legislation when the new Congress convenes in January. As part of the reconciliation process, Thune aims to work with the House quickly, and one proposal includes a 50% tax on remittances sent by illegal immigrants. This idea is driven by concerns over the financial burden that illegal immigration places on taxpayers. It’s estimated that over 16 million illegal immigrants reside in the U.S., costing taxpayers approximately $151 billion annually for social services, healthcare, education, and law enforcement. While some illegal immigrants contribute taxes, the revenue does not offset the costs incurred.

The proposed remittance tax would target the $46 billion sent abroad annually by unauthorized workers in the U.S., generating an estimated $23 billion. This revenue could help fund border security measures, including the completion of the border wall, enhancing security, accelerating deportations, and increasing immigration judges. The tax could also deter illegal remittance practices by criminal cartels and individuals avoiding taxes, with non-payment potentially classified as a felony.

Additionally, a remittance tax would reduce the financial incentive for illegal immigrants to stay in the U.S. by curbing the flow of money to their home countries, many of which receive U.S. social services support. This policy aims to reduce taxpayer burden and encourage legal immigration, with a focus on fairness and deterrence of illegal activities.

At Joppa Crossing, a housing development in suburban Baltimore, immigrant workers are essential in constructing new townhouses. Marlon Garcia, originally from El Salvador, highlights that many of his co-workers are from Mexico, Guatemala, and Honduras. Immigrant labor now comprises about a quarter of the construction workforce, especially in residential construction, where immigrants represent a third of the labor force. This trend is a response to the industry’s labor shortage, worsened by the Great Recession and an aging workforce. Few young workers are entering the field, and immigrant labor fills the gap.

While the shortage of construction workers has eased slightly, the U.S. still faces a housing deficit of 1.5 million homes, with nearly 250,000 unfilled construction jobs. The looming threat of mass deportations under the Trump administration has raised concerns among homebuilders. Many construction workers are unauthorized immigrants, and even the mere threat of deportation could force workers into hiding, exacerbating the labor shortage.

To address this, homebuilders are advocating for new visa programs to legally bring more workers into the industry. Additionally, programs like Temporary Protected Status and Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, which provide work authorization to immigrants, could be at risk under Trump’s policies.

Stricter immigration policies may also drive up construction costs. A decrease in available workers could increase labor expenses, which would be passed on to consumers, making housing more expensive. This complex issue underscores the economic impact of immigration policies on the construction industry and housing affordability.

Economic studies show that past efforts to bar immigrants from entering the U.S. have harmed American workers, indicating that new immigration restrictions will likely have similar negative effects. This research focuses on the impacts of policies such as the Chinese Exclusion Act and other efforts to restrict immigration from groups like Mexicans, Italians, European Jews, and more. Economists agree that there is no reliable evidence showing that mass deportation or immigration bans benefit U.S. workers.

The Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882, which banned Chinese workers from immigrating, was meant to protect American workers by reducing competition. However, research shows that the act led to unintended negative consequences. It reduced the Chinese labor supply by 64%, but also caused a 28% decrease in the white male labor supply. White workers were pushed into lower-paying jobs, and the labor shortage slowed economic growth in the western U.S. Manufacturing output dropped by 62%, and the number of manufacturing establishments decreased by 54% to 69%. The act also discouraged white workers from migrating to the West, undermining economic development in that region for decades.

The findings indicate that restricting immigration, rather than benefiting American workers, can stifle economic growth, particularly in developing areas. The absence of Chinese workers hindered the dynamic growth of the U.S. West, which would have been faster had immigration been allowed. Similar consequences could occur with future immigration restrictions under the Trump administration.

The incoming Trump administration has said that immigration is a top priority

The Heritage Foundation has outlined a comprehensive plan for overhauling the U.S. immigration system, aiming to address the challenges left by the Biden administration. In a new paper, Lora Ries, director of the Heritage's Border Security and Immigration Center, critiques the dysfunctional system, describing legal immigration as slow, complicated, and costly, while illegal immigration has been inadequately punished. She argues that the Biden administration worsened the situation by blurring the lines between legal and illegal immigration, particularly through its handling of humanitarian parole and asylum policies.

With the incoming Republican Congress, led by a hawkish Trump administration, Ries suggests five key principles for reforming immigration. These principles focus on upholding the rule of law, prioritizing American citizens and legal immigrants, ensuring national security, simplifying the immigration process, and eliminating incentives for illegal immigration.

Specific recommendations include revoking visas for violators, requiring proof of citizenship to vote, ensuring citizens are counted in the census for congressional apportionment, and protecting American wages. The Heritage Foundation also supports eliminating the green card lottery, ensuring U.S. workers are prioritized in hiring, and promoting assimilation. The paper calls for the implementation of E-Verify and suggests limiting due process in immigration cases.

Overall, the Heritage Foundation’s roadmap offers a vision for a simpler, fairer, and more manageable immigration system that puts American interests first.

Tech companies, backed by Elon Musk and other Silicon Valley figures, are advocating for increased high-skilled immigration to address workforce shortages in fields like science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM). They argue that expanding legal immigration could enhance America’s global competitiveness, especially in cutting-edge industries like AI and biotechnology. However, they face significant opposition from nativist figures within the GOP, such as Stephen Miller, who argue that foreign STEM workers drive down wages and take jobs from Americans.

During Trump’s first term, Silicon Valley’s efforts to push for high-skilled immigration were stymied by restrictionists, but with Musk’s influence, tech leaders are hopeful that they can finally pass policies to increase the number of STEM workers allowed in the U.S. This includes proposals to boost the number of green cards and create pathways for foreign students to stay in the U.S. after graduation. Musk, who has firsthand experience with the importance of skilled immigrants for his companies, is using his position to support these changes.

While there’s growing support for these policies among Republicans, there is also resistance from groups like NumbersUSA, which fears that expanding high-skilled immigration would go against the will of the American public, which favors lower immigration levels. Tech advocates are pushing for a balanced approach that includes both increased immigration and greater investments in domestic STEM education. The debate on high-skilled immigration is shaping up to be a contentious issue in the upcoming Congress.