Week of December 15–22, 2024

California Attorney General Rob Bonta issued two new guidances to help immigrants understand their rights and protect them from immigration scams amid threats of mass deportations. These guidances complement the updated policies for public institutions that limit local participation in immigration enforcement. Bonta will hold sessions in Los Angeles, Sacramento, Salinas, San Francisco, and San Diego to share resources and engage with immigrant rights groups.

The “Know Your Immigration Rights” guidance emphasizes that immigrants have the right to apply for housing without disclosing immigration status, access emergency medical care, and seek legal representation if detained by ICE. State and local law enforcement are prohibited from inquiring about immigration status or sharing personal information unless public or criminal history-related.

The second guidance addresses immigration scams, warning immigrants to avoid fraudulent services. It advises seeking assistance from legitimate legal aid organizations, safeguarding original documents, and only hiring licensed lawyers or accredited representatives for legal matters. It also cautions against giving money or personal information to unsolicited callers, as no federal agency will request such information over the phone or via email.

These measures aim to protect California's immigrant communities from exploitation and ensure their rights are upheld in light of potential federal immigration policy changes.

Immigration will be a central issue in the 2024 presidential transition, with Trump advocating for stricter enforcement and deportations. Three potential scenarios outline possible changes to immigration policy.

1. More Bark than Bite: The administration will likely initiate visible anti-immigration actions, including high-profile deportation raids and ending Biden’s humanitarian parole programs. However, these efforts might be limited in scope, leading to uncertainty and fear but not major policy shifts.

2. Aggressive Anti-Immigrant Policy: This scenario would see Trump pushing harsh measures to restrict immigration, including limiting legal pathways, ramping up deportations, and reducing border flows. It could result in net negative migration and significant disruption in industries reliant on immigrant labor, such as agriculture and construction. Immigrant communities would face trauma, especially children with undocumented parents.

3. Constitutional Crisis: The administration might challenge court rulings, disregarding legal restrictions, which could provoke a constitutional crisis. Previous court decisions blocked Trump’s efforts to dismantle DACA and impose the "Muslim ban," but a new administration might try to bypass judicial limits.

Ultimately, regardless of the specific approach, the Trump administration is expected to enact stricter immigration policies, which will slow immigration flows and intensify enforcement, with significant implications for the economy and society.

The American Immigration Council does not endorse candidates but provides analysis on election impacts on immigration policy. President-elect Trump’s mass deportation plan, aiming to target millions of undocumented individuals, risks deporting individuals like Goura Ndiaye. Despite living in the U.S. for 20 years with no criminal record, Goura was deported to Mauritania in 2017. Trump’s focus on “criminal immigrants” overlooks the fact that over 90% of undocumented individuals have no criminal history. Deporting non-criminals, like Goura, will likely become a priority under the new administration.

Trump’s mass deportation rhetoric relies on fear of crime, but studies show that immigrants actually reduce violent and property crimes. His plans could drain taxpayer resources and disrupt the economy without enhancing safety. Additionally, local law enforcement involvement in immigration enforcement reduces trust and leaves communities vulnerable, including victims of domestic violence.

The U.S. immigration system is already harsh on immigrants with criminal records, often deporting people for minor offenses or even non-violent crimes committed decades ago. For example, veterans like Howard Bailey, who faced deportation over a marijuana offense from ten years prior, highlight the injustice of these policies.

Deporting people with long-established ties to the U.S., especially those without serious criminal backgrounds, is wasteful and unjust. A more sensible approach would balance public safety with fair treatment for immigrants. Trump's deportation agenda threatens to exacerbate these issues, and a better, more humane solution is needed.

The U.S. Social Security system faces financial challenges due to demographic shifts, with the trust fund expected to be exhausted by 2035. A key factor is the aging population, as fertility rates have declined since the Baby Boom, while life expectancy has increased. This has led to a higher old-age dependency ratio, with more retirees relying on fewer working-age adults. In 1970, the ratio was 18 retirees per 100 workers, and it reached 28 in 2020, expected to rise to 53 by 2100.

The current “pay-as-you-go” system, where workers’ taxes fund retirees' benefits, will struggle to meet demands, with only 75% of benefits funded by 2035. Raising taxes or cutting benefits is unpopular, so finding solutions is critical.

Immigration offers a potential remedy by adding to the working-age population. In 2023, foreign-born individuals made up 18.6% of the labor force, a significant increase from 1970. Immigrants are also more likely to participate in the labor force than U.S.-born individuals. Additionally, immigrants contribute to higher fertility rates, as they have more children than native-born women, helping to balance the aging population.

By expanding the workforce and boosting fertility, immigrants play a crucial role in maintaining Social Security's viability. Immigrants and their children help to sustain the labor force and improve the old-age dependency ratio, ensuring economic stability and supporting the aging U.S. population.

On December 17, Canadian ministers unveiled a border security plan focused on enhancing U.S.-Canada border protection, which they had privately shared with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's incoming administration. The plan emphasizes surveillance, intelligence, and technology, including helicopters, drones, surveillance towers, sniffer dogs, and a "joint strike force" targeting transnational organized crime.

The Canadian government has committed C$1.3 billion ($909 million) over six years to strengthen border security, addressing concerns about fentanyl, irregular migration, and organized crime. The move comes after Trump threatened 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico if they did not curb the movement of migrants and drugs into the U.S.

In the year ending in October, U.S. authorities apprehended over 23,000 people at the U.S.-Canada border, more than double the previous year, though still a small fraction compared to the 1.5 million apprehended at the U.S.-Mexico border. Canadian police have increased surveillance with cameras and sensors on the most trafficked border sections. However, they acknowledge challenges in preventing southbound crossers. The announcement followed "encouraging" meetings with Trump’s border czar Tom Homan and other U.S. officials.

The party once championed an approach popular with voters and politicians alike. Why give up on it?

Immigration once strongly favored Democrats, as illustrated in the 2012 election. Mitt Romney’s defeat to Barack Obama was partly attributed to his harsh “self-deportation” stance, which alienated immigrant communities. In contrast, Obama supported comprehensive immigration reform, combining border enforcement with a pathway to citizenship and expanded legal immigration—a policy endorsed by 77% of the public and immigrant advocates.

In the election's aftermath, prominent conservatives, including Sean Hannity, Rupert Murdoch, and Charles Krauthammer, expressed newfound support for reform. They advocated for pathways to citizenship, recognizing immigrants as hardworking taxpayers. This bipartisan momentum led to the “Gang of Eight” senators introducing a reform bill, which passed the Senate with a significant 68–32 vote.

California Attorney General Rob Bonta launched “Know Your Rights” guidance in Los Angeles to protect immigrant communities and combat notario fraud. He emphasized that all immigrants, regardless of legal status, have rights to legal representation, police reports, secure housing without disclosing immigration status, emergency medical care, and workplaces free from harassment and discrimination. Bonta warned employers against threatening immigration-related retaliation.

The event, held at Asian Americans Advancing Justice Southern California, was the first of many statewide workshops aimed at informing immigrants of their rights and addressing fears tied to former President Donald Trump’s deportation promises. These sessions provide tools to empower immigrant communities and push back against fraud and exploitation.

Bonta and advocates highlighted the prevalence of scams targeting immigrants, particularly in Los Angeles, where unlicensed notarios offer fake legal help or extort payments by threatening deportation. Gina Amato Lough of Public Counsel’s Immigrants’ Rights Project urged immigrants to seek qualified legal aid through resources like LawHelpCA.org. She advised avoiding unlicensed services, requesting receipts, ensuring documents are translated into native languages, and carefully reviewing all paperwork before signing.

California’s initiative underscores its commitment to protecting immigrant rights, addressing community fears, and countering fraudulent practices that exploit vulnerable populations.