Week of December 29–31, 2024

The free movement of capital—money, data, and labor—is crucial for supporting sustainable economic growth. While money and data move freely across borders in the U.S., the labor market remains constrained by outdated immigration policies, particularly those from the 1965 Immigration and Nationality Act. This mismatch risks hindering economic growth and exacerbating inflation.

The U.S. population has been growing at a rate of about 0.98% annually over the past 50 years, and projections suggest that this will slow to 0.6% over the next decade. With the labor market shifting as the baby boomer generation retires, there is an increasing shortage of workers in various sectors, from service and hospitality to skilled trades like mechanics and electricians.

This labor shortage creates imbalances in the economy, putting upward pressure on wages without leading to stable growth. A modern, sophisticated guest worker program could help fill these gaps and maintain economic momentum. This is especially important for industries like waste and recycling, where turnover rates for drivers are high, and a large portion of the workforce is Hispanic.

The National Waste and Recycling Association (NWRA) plays a vital role in the economy by collecting waste and recycling, yet the industry faces significant challenges due to labor shortages. Immigration reform is necessary to ensure industries like waste management can continue to thrive and contribute to sustainable economic practices, as reflected in Emma Lazarus’ poem on the Statue of Liberty, emphasizing America’s welcoming spirit.

Donald Trump has promised to deport millions of immigrants on “Day One” of his second term, claiming it will be the “largest deportation operation in American history.” However, questions loom over the legality and the potentially astronomical costs of his plan.

Trump intends to invoke the Alien Enemies Act of 1798, a wartime law that allows the president to deport non-citizens deemed a threat to the U.S. His plan, called “Operation Aurora,” targets immigrant criminals, citing gangs like the Tren de Aragua. However, studies show that immigrants, both documented and undocumented, commit crimes at much lower rates than native-born Americans.

Mass deportations are not a new phenomenon in U.S. history. While Trump’s plan would require more deportations than his first term, past efforts have shown that governments don’t always need to physically remove large numbers of people to reduce immigrant populations. Historically, intense publicity campaigns have created an atmosphere of fear, causing immigrants to “self-deport.”

As UCLA professor Kelly Lytle-Hernández explains, fear plays a central role in these operations. A strategy of frightening immigrants into leaving, rather than forcibly deporting them, has been a key tactic in past efforts. Thus, Trump’s approach may rely more on psychological pressure than large-scale removal operations. This method has proven effective in the past and may be central to his plan moving forward.

Donald Trump has promised the “largest deportation” in U.S. history, but executing this plan will require significant funding, resources, and overcoming challenges in the immigration court system. The process of deportation requires a final order from an immigration court, but these courts have been severely underfunded and understaffed for years, creating a backlog of 3.6 million cases, the highest in history.

This backlog, which grew by 44% in the past year, continues to hinder the deportation process. Trump’s supporters, including Eric Ruark from NumbersUSA, argue that Congress needs to fund the immigration courts to address this backlog and ensure resources for enforcement agencies like ICE. With about 700 immigration judges overseeing cases, the court system operates under the Department of Justice, which has been inadequately funded for decades.

John Sandweg, former ICE director, notes that increasing judges and support staff is crucial for speeding up deportations, as long wait times allow individuals to become more integrated into U.S. society, making deportation politically harder. The bipartisan immigration reform bill proposed earlier this year included funding for more judges, but Trump opposed it.

Trump’s team is preparing to boost deportations immediately upon his return to office, with plans to hire more ICE officers, border agents, and expand detention capacity. Tom Homan, Trump’s border czar, has called for increasing the number of detention beds to 100,000, asserting that more arrests and detention will expedite the deportation process.

An ally of President-elect Donald Trump, Stephen Miller, sent a letter to Howard County Executive Calvin Ball warning that he and his staff could face “criminal and civil liability” for not complying with immigration orders to deport individuals in the U.S. illegally. The letter, sent on Dec. 23 through the nonprofit America First Legal, labeled Howard County a "sanctuary jurisdiction" in violation of federal law.

The letter asserts that the county's noncompliance with federal immigration law subjects Ball and his team to significant legal risks. Miller, who leads America First Legal, emphasized the importance of adhering to federal law and urged the county to comply.

Immigration has been a central issue in Trump’s political platform, with the president-elect promising mass deportations upon taking office. However, the specifics of this plan remain unclear. Trump's recent pick for border czar, Tom Homan, is a former border patrol agent and led U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) during the controversial “zero tolerance” policy. This policy, which resulted in family separations, sparked significant criticism but remains a cornerstone of Trump’s tough immigration stance.

The letter sent to Ball highlights the ongoing tension between local governments and the incoming Trump administration over immigration policies, with sanctuary cities and jurisdictions at the center of this debate.

President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration has raised concerns among faith leaders, particularly regarding the potential revocation of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) policy restricting the arrest of unauthorized immigrants at or near sensitive locations like houses of worship, hospitals, schools, and funerals. This policy, known as the "sensitive locations" ban, has been in place since 2011 to protect immigrant communities from facing deportation in places of religious, medical, and educational importance.

On Dec. 28, ten Arizona faith leaders, including Catholic Bishops Edward J. Weisenburger and John P. Dolan, expressed their concerns in an op-ed published in the Arizona Republic. They emphasized that allowing arrests at such locations would violate religious freedom, intimidate undocumented persons from seeking religious services, and undermine basic human rights. Bishop Weisenburger also pointed out that the U.S. Constitution protects the free exercise of religion, which could be infringed upon by such actions.

Trump's immigration policies, particularly his commitment to the largest deportation effort in U.S. history, are expected to include aggressive tactics such as increased raids on sanctuary cities and the separation of families. Tom Homan, Trump's appointee for border czar, has proposed measures like deputizing local and military forces for deportation operations.

Faith leaders and immigration advocates warn that such policies could lead to unnecessary human suffering and religious liberty violations. They urge the government to consider the dignity and rights of all individuals, regardless of their immigration status.

The U.S. population grew by approximately 3.3 million residents from mid-2023 to mid-2024, with immigration playing a significant role, according to new U.S. Census Bureau estimates. This year’s population increase is the largest since 2001, buoyed by a 21% rise in net immigration. Texas and Florida led this growth, adding over 1 million people combined and contributing to nearly a third of the national increase.

This year’s growth follows a trend from the previous two years, with 2023 seeing a 2.8 million increase and 2022 a 1.9 million boost. Immigration is now a key factor in population changes, accounting for nearly all of the growth in 18 states, especially those experiencing low birth rates or high death rates. William Frey of the Brookings Institution noted the importance of immigration not just for large states but for regions that would otherwise face population decline.

California, Illinois, and other states previously seeing population losses also benefited from increased immigration, helping to offset expected future losses in congressional representation. For instance, California’s population boost may reduce its loss of U.S. House seats after the 2030 census, from four to three.

Other states like Florida and Texas saw significant growth, with each growing by around 2% in the past year. In contrast, only three states—West Virginia, Vermont, and Mississippi—experienced small population declines. The continued influx of immigrants is reshaping the nation’s demographics and contributing to its population growth.

Immigration and border security were central issues in the 2024 presidential election, heavily influencing political debates and news coverage. Both candidates presented themselves as the best equipped to handle the historic border crisis, which had far-reaching consequences across the country.

By January 2024, the U.S. was still grappling with a migrant crisis that began in 2021 and persisted through 2022 and 2023. In December 2023, the situation reached a new peak with over 250,000 encounters at the southern border in a single month. To address the crisis, top Cabinet officials traveled to Mexico to urge Mexican leaders to take stronger action against the flow of migrants heading north.

As the presidential and congressional races heated up, it became clear that immigration would be a key issue in the campaign. Then-candidate Donald Trump promised a mass deportation operation if elected, aiming to tackle the border crisis head-on. Meanwhile, President Biden pointed to a significant decline in border encounters since the start of 2024, highlighting his administration's efforts to curb illegal immigration. In June, Biden also signed an executive order aimed at limiting asylum entries, positioning himself as taking decisive action while facing ongoing pressure from Republicans and immigration advocates alike.

The border crisis became a defining issue of the election year, shaping public perception and political strategies for both major candidates.

There is understandable anxiety about what President-elect Donald Trump’s deportation policies will entail, especially given his inflammatory rhetoric and the large number of unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. Many of these individuals have lived here for years, working and raising families, and uprooting them could be seen as cruel, particularly when the U.S. has passively allowed them to stay.

The concern arises from whether Trump will follow former President Obama's example of focusing on deporting criminals or whether he will extend his policies to force families to choose between staying together or being separated. Immigration reform has become polarized, with one side advocating strict border enforcement and deportation, while the other seeks a path to citizenship for all unauthorized immigrants.

Historically, comprehensive immigration reform was an agreement between the left and right, balancing border enforcement with a rational process for legal immigration. A key component was requiring employers to report the legal status of their employees through the E-Verify system. This system, already in use by many employers voluntarily, helps prevent unauthorized immigrants from finding work.

For those unauthorized immigrants who have lived here for 5 to 7 years and contributed positively to society, a path to amnesty would be a reasonable solution. This approach would allow individuals to avoid deportation while their eligibility for amnesty is reviewed. Rigorous enforcement of the E-Verify system would prevent illegal workers from securing jobs, deterring further illegal immigration.

Right-wing, anti-immigrant parties in Europe have gained power recently, but their immigration policies often contradict their campaign rhetoric. In Italy, for example, Giorgia Meloni's government initially campaigned against immigration. However, in practice, her agriculture minister Francesco Lollobrigida has pushed for more visas for agricultural workers to fill the shortfall of 200,000 workers annually in Italy’s agriculture sector. The country's farming industry relies heavily on foreign workers, with a third of its legal workforce made up of foreigners.

Similar contradictions are visible in Poland and the Netherlands. Poland’s Law and Justice party campaigned against non-European immigration, but they issued significantly more work permits for Asians and Latin Americans, despite allegations of bribery. In the Netherlands, the anti-immigrant Party for Freedom holds power, but its coalition with the Farmer Citizen Movement means they resist restrictions that would impede the agricultural sector’s labor force.

In the U.S., Donald Trump, a key figure in the GOP, attracted support from anti-immigration voters but has also supported visas for unskilled laborers. His use of the H-2B and H-2A visa programs, which allow unskilled and agricultural workers to enter the U.S., reflects this contradiction. The GOP broadly agrees that illegal immigration is a problem, but the economic impact of deporting millions of undocumented workers complicates the issue, especially in industries like agriculture and hospitality. As the debate continues, economic recessions have historically played a role in reducing illegal immigration.

A court system teetering on the brink of disaster

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) recently reported that 34% of non-detained respondents fail to attend immigration court hearings, a significant issue in the current immigration system. This report highlights key problems in tracking and reporting noncitizens’ hearing appearances and the consequences of absent respondents.

The Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) mandates penalties for individuals who fail to appear in court, with “in absentia” orders leading to deportation. Yet, despite these measures, over a third of respondents do not show up, especially in non-detained cases. The GAO's analysis shows significant variation in no-show rates, with some courts like Honolulu seeing just a 10% absentee rate, while Charlotte, N.C., reports up to 64%. Various factors contribute to these discrepancies, including court location, legal representation, and the nature of asylum claims.

Respondents with legal representation have a much lower absentee rate (9%) compared to those without (75%). The report also found that individuals with stronger asylum cases are more likely to attend hearings, often because they have hired legal representation. Nationality plays a role as well, with respondents from Cuba having a 7% absentee rate, compared to 64% for Nicaraguans.

GAO also explored the challenges posed by family units, which make up a significant portion of illegal border crossings. The Biden administration’s dedicated docket aimed at speeding up cases for these families saw a 31% absentee rate, a slight improvement over prior programs.

Ultimately, the report underscores that without detention or robust enforcement, many respondents will simply skip court and remain illegally in the U.S.

President-elect Donald Trump has consistently threatened to impose trade tariffs on Mexico, ranging from 25 to 100 percent, unless the country takes stronger action to secure its border with the U.S. This concept of using Mexico as an extension of U.S. immigration enforcement is not new, as Trump’s first administration already pressured Mexico to increase migrant detentions and deportations, a trend that began under Obama.

During both administrations, I witnessed firsthand the impact of these pressures on Mexico’s immigration system. Increased checkpoints and raids became common across highways, bus stations, and workplaces. To avoid detection, migrants from Central and South America sought out remote areas, paralleling the dangerous routes taken along the U.S. border to evade Border Patrol.

I also observed the growth of a migration industry throughout Mexico. Towns that were once far from migrant routes became transit hubs, shaping local economies and turning migrants into commodities. On both sides of the border, migrants faced criminalization, persecution, and increasing visibility. Local complaints about migrants using services or bringing diseases mirrored those heard in the U.S.

Mexico’s cooperation with Trump’s immigration plans has been crucial, as it helps him move toward his vision of a closed U.S. border. However, with a new Mexican president, Claudia Sheinbaum, in office, internal resistance from civil and religious organizations may challenge further immigration enforcement. Trump’s influence remains significant, but whether this partnership endures is uncertain. Meanwhile, migrants continue to suffer under both countries’ policies.

Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and one of Donald Trump’s wealthiest supporters, recently called for the removal of “contemptible fools” from the Republican Party, labeling them “unrepentant racists” who oppose legal immigration. This remark, made on December 27, drew backlash from Trump allies, with strategist Steve Bannon dismissing Musk as a "toddler," and activist Laura Loomer criticizing him as out of touch with regular Americans. The conflict sparked comparisons to Hillary Clinton’s infamous “basket of deplorables” remark during the 2016 election.

While the exchange between Musk and Trump supporters may seem like a passing social media dispute, the underlying issue—immigration—remains a key topic that will dominate Trump’s second presidential term. Musk defended the H-1B visa program, which allows foreign workers in specialized fields like technology to work in the U.S., a stance Trump supported on December 29.

This has left some MAGA supporters confused, as Trump has long been associated with strict immigration policies, including building a wall and deporting undocumented migrants. However, Musk’s defense of certain visas highlights the complexity of the immigration debate, which involves various visa types such as H-1B (for skilled workers) and H-2B (for temporary non-agricultural workers).

The differing views on immigration among key Republican figures signal that Trump’s stance on foreign workers may cause tension within his base, setting the stage for heated debates in the coming years.

Mexico is launching a smartphone app that allows Mexican migrants to quickly alert their relatives and the nearest consulate if U.S. immigration agents detain them. This initiative is part of a broader effort by President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration to protect the human rights of Mexican citizens in the U.S. amid concerns about President-elect Trump’s mass deportation plans.

Foreign Secretary Juan Ramón de la Fuente announced that the "emergency notification" app would be available in January, aiming to reassure Mexican citizens that they are not alone. The program is backed by Mexico's "Know Your Rights" campaign, which includes a network of 329 legal advisors across 53 U.S. consulates. The legal support program also involves voluntary assistance from law firms throughout the country.

Trump's mass deportation strategy could include U.S. citizens who are children of undocumented immigrants, with Republican governors supporting the use of state law enforcement and the National Guard. These plans have raised concerns, with advocacy groups warning about the human rights implications of mass detentions.

Mexico is also urging Mexican citizens with U.S.-born children to register with consulates to ensure they receive legal support if needed. While the logistics of mass deportations face significant challenges, including the cost and lack of detention facilities, the move could strain Mexico’s resources if deportations increase.

Mexico’s response to these developments, including cooperation with U.S. policies, could lead to further tensions between the two nations.

America First Legal, a nonprofit foundation associated with Donald Trump’s advisors, has sent letters to officials in Hancock and Cumberland counties, accusing them of violating federal immigration law. The letters claim that the counties' policies protect individuals arrested on criminal charges but believed to be in the U.S. illegally, making these counties “sanctuary jurisdictions.”

The group, led by Stephen Miller, a former senior adviser to Trump, issued 249 letters nationwide, warning elected officials that their actions might result in legal consequences. The letter cites the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), which identified the two Maine counties’ jails as not fully complying with immigration detainer requests. These requests ask local jails to hold individuals for up to 48 hours after their release to allow ICE to investigate their immigration status and potentially initiate deportation.

However, Cumberland County Sheriff Kevin Joyce disagreed with the characterization, stating that his office does not provide sanctuary and has always cooperated with ICE. Hancock County Jail Administrator Timothy Richardson, meanwhile, had not received the letter and declined further comment.

This issue comes amid Trump’s promises for mass deportations and stricter immigration policies. As the administration prepares to carry out these plans, immigrants' rights advocates in Maine are bracing for potential changes and will be ready to respond as more details emerge. The situation highlights tensions between federal immigration enforcement and local policies.

LANSING, Mich. (WLNS) — Major immigration and deportation changes are expected in 2025 as the nation welcomes a new presidential administration.

President-elect Donald Trump, during his campaign, pledged significant changes starting day one. With less than a month until his inauguration, experts and immigration advocates are bracing for the impact.

The incoming administration plans to launch the largest deportation campaign in U.S. history, mobilizing local, state, and federal law enforcement. Advocates predict workplace sweeps targeting industries heavily reliant on immigrant labor.

Julie Powers, executive director of Immigration Law & Justice Michigan, warns of broad policy shifts. “For the first time in over a decade, raids could occur at places previously off-limits,” she said. This includes healthcare facilities, schools, and faith-based organizations, potentially discouraging immigrants from accessing vital services.

Adding to concerns, the administration intends to empower individuals to report undocumented neighbors. “This mirrors tactics from authoritarian regimes,” said Powers. “It’s alarming and will create a culture of fear.”

Michigan is home to 690,000 immigrants, including 90,000 undocumented residents. Experts urge individuals to ensure their documentation is up-to-date to avoid legal complications.

“Anyone in the immigration process, whether here on a green card or pursuing citizenship, should ensure their paperwork is current,” said Powers. “It’s easy to make mistakes, so consulting an attorney is crucial.”

With sweeping changes looming, advocates emphasize the need for preparation and community support.